Interesante artículo varias semanas después de la fallida OPA de AOL sobre la sueca TradeDoubler:

Time Warner May Regret Lost Deal

By MIKE ESTERL
April 20, 2007; Page B3

When Time Warner Inc. unveiled a $900 million offer for Swedish online advertising company TradeDoubler AB this year, it expected to wrap up the deal quickly. Instead, shareholders demanded a higher bid, and Time Warner ended up walking away.

Time Warner may regret giving up. While TradeDoubler isn't well known in the U.S., it stands at the center of a small but fast-growing ad market in Europe: cost-per-action Internet marketing, in which advertisers pay publishers only if the ad triggers a purchase or a customer sign-up.

Cost-per-action represents only about a 10th of online advertising in both Europe and the U.S., according to industry estimates. Most still goes to cost-per-impression, in which advertisers pay for the number of times a Web page is viewed, and cost-per-click, in which they pay for the number of times the ad is clicked on.

But a rising number of companies eager to tie their ad spending more closely to sales are pushing for cost-per-action deals as tracking technologies become more sophisticated. "It's in the mix more often than it has been in the past," says David Schruers, the London-based head of online advertising at Initiative, a media buyer.

TradeDoubler acts as a broker, offering online ads from more than 1,000 advertisers to a network of about 120,000 Web site publishers it has built up since setting up shop in 1999. It monitors activity and handles billings between advertisers and publishers, charging advertisers a commission. Advertisers that have tapped into the network include computer maker Dell Inc. and British Gas, a unit of Centrica PLC.

The business model is working well for the company, which has been listed on Stockholm's stock exchange since late 2005. Management expects revenue to grow 40% to 50% this year, after a 61% jump to 1.744 billion Swedish kronor ($257.4 million) in 2006. About four-fifths of its revenue is tied to cost-per-action, according to industry estimates.

Major rivals among online marketing companies in Europe targeting the cost-per-action business include Germany's Zanox, ValueClick Inc.'s Commission Junction unit and Advertising.com, owned by Time Warner's AOL unit.

But, while figures on the business model are scarce, industry trackers say TradeDoubler appears to be in the driver's seat. It has developed an on-the-ground presence in 15 European countries, comfortably ahead of competitors. Online advertising grabs less than 5% of overall ad outlays in many of those countries, but growth is accelerating more quickly than in more mature Internet markets such as the United Kingdom or the U.S.

The first-mover advantage is particularly important in Europe. Brokers have to navigate a maze of borders with different languages, laws and business cultures. Setting up a reliable and extensive network of publishers for advertisers across such terrain can take years. "We certainly regard them as a leader," says Nate Elliott, an online ad analyst in Berlin at Jupiter Research, of TradeDoubler's market position in Europe.

Cost-per-action is drawing heightened attention in the U.S. Google Inc. recently began testing a cost-per-action model as an alternative to the cost-per-click model it traditionally employs. When it agreed to buy online marketing group DoubleClick Inc. last week, Google also acquired Performics, a DoubleClick unit and a big cost-per-action player in the U.S. Google has yet to experiment with cost-per-action in Europe, but it may just be a matter of time. "A lot of our advertisers obviously would like to have this option," says Stefan Keuchel, a spokesman for Google Germany.

Time Warner's AOL unit viewed TradeDoubler as a strong complement to Advertising.com and a quick route to diversifying its cost-per-action business on the Continent. Advertising.com employs a "push" model, buying up empty real estate on publisher Web sites and then auctioning it to advertisers. TradeDoubler employs a "pull" model, whereby publishers belonging to its affiliate network can grab ads that the Swedish company has posted from advertisers.

Swedish investors blocked Time Warner's planned takeover because they said the offer undervalued the growth potential of TradeDoubler. "There are very few unique companies like this," says Peter van Berlekom, who oversees equities investments at Swedish pension fund Alecta. Alecta is TradeDoubler's largest shareholder, with roughly a 12% stake.

An AOL spokesman said the offer for TradeDoubler was "full and fair" and the U.S. company has no plans to return with a higher bid. He added that AOL will "continue to aggressively expand" its Advertising.com business in Europe, which is growing "rapidly."

Some industry watchers say it may only be a matter of time until someone comes knocking again at TradeDoubler's door with a takeover proposal. The Stockholm company has a stock-market capitalization a bit under $800 million.

For now, William Cooper, TradeDoubler's 33-year-old chief executive, says management is drawing up a two- or three-year expansion plan on the assumption it will remain a stand-alone company. Among the options it is weighing: expansion into the U.S. and Asia, with some acquisitions. "It's at the research stage," says Mr. Cooper.